Any statistics gurus out there ?
Looking at historical link utilization data and trying to forecast out 90 days from now. Trying to decide what would be a more accurate predictor. Would more granular data such as daily averages over the last 40 days where I can exclude Saturdays and Sundays and calculate for core business hours be more accurate than lets say daily averages over the last 120 or 240 days where at best I could only exclude weekends ?
Not speaking as a statistician but from experience, I would go for the 40 days of more accurate information. It better models the behavour you are forecasting. You could do the longer time frame that includes non-business hours then factor out the difference in business hour usage to non-business hour usage. This factor will usually be between .4 and .6 and varies with length of business hours and non-business hour traffic rates.