When we talk about management/monitoring the plan for long term future makes this discussion point fairly irrelevant. As case in point for VMWARE..if your approach had been solely based on SNMP you would be out of luck today to manage/monitor an ESXi environment. This too is likely to be the case for where HYPER-V sits in the future.
I do not think it is at all clear that HyperV will indeed become more relevant as Application runtime VM environment becomes more popular thus stripping the OS Guest layer to its abstraction. From a purely P2V perspective for late adopers..sure there's going to be opportunity for MS to be involved. We also have to remember that for cloud providers as very large buyers they need supporting tools/platforms and that's where Hyper V will have an EXTREMELY long road to catch up on Security/Patch/Config management/Performance Management, etc. as compared to VMWARE.
Moreover, for the next 2 - 3 years we will see a further deepening and domination on how EMC/VMWARE/Cisco help dominate this story through Flexpod as well as competing stories from HP/Dell/IBM with all of their focus on VMWARE.
One thing clear to me is that narrow market for VBOX/Parallels/XEN is going to create a dual dominating market for the moment.
Lastly, things change quickly with technology adoption and invention. After 3 years we will be speaking of yet another framework adoption curve.
I agree that Hyper-V has a very long road ahead of it in the provider and large enterprise spaces in particular. However, for the SMB space - a huge market segment that may be more cost conscious than the provider/large enterprise - I remain convinced that Hyper-V will gain great inroads. Many small organizations would be considered late adopters, but the benefits of virtualization are real, even for them. In this space, Microsoft is often as natural choice and given Hyper-V 3.0's much more robust feature set over the current product, I see many of these same SMBs simply going the Microsoft route.
Of course, as you mention, we'll be having the same discussion about different frameworks in 3 years :-)
We run both Hyper-V and vSphere in what I would describe as a large SMB or small enterprise environment, so multiple hypervisor support is important to us.
Will the new versions of Hyper-V have control plane/data plane separation like VMWare does? This seems to me to be the big architectural difference at this point. Virtual networking features seem pretty non-existent in Hyper-V today beyond basic stuff like 802.1q.
Yes Hyper-V 3 is reported to have a virtual switch and support for 3rd party vendor virtual switches (Cisco and others)